In an average year, about ten tropical disturbances reach tropical storm strength. Six of these strengthen further into hurricanes and about two of these become intense hurricanes (see table 1). Most of the time, a hurricane season has a below or above average amount of tropical cyclones. Rarely a season will have the exact average amount of storms. In the 1990s, we have had five below average seasons (1991 through 1994 and 1997) and also five above average seasons (1990, 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999). Especially 1995 was a very active season with as many as 19 tropical storms, including eleven hurricanes. The strongest hurricane in 1995 was Opal which devastated part of the Florida panhandle in the United States. Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn were devastating to parts of the northeastern Caribbean.
The 1996 season was not as active as the exceptional one in 1995 but still above average with 13 tropical storms of which nine reached hurricane strength. Six of those became intense hurricanes although three of those maintained that strength for only a few hours.
The 1997 season was expected originally to have a slightly above average amount of tropical cyclones (in our area). Thanks to the so-called El Niño phenomenon, things did not materialize that way.
The 1998 season became much more active than the previous one. Thanks to mainly the demise of the "El Niño" phenomenon, the tropical cyclone activity became dramatically higher. The strongest hurricanes were Bonnie, Georges and last but not least Mitch. Especially the passages of George and Mitch had devastating effects over large parts of the northern Caribbean and Central America respectively. Mitch was responsible for the death of thousands of people and this monster will be remembered for quite some time in especially Honduras and Nicaragua.
1999 Was also an interesting year as far as tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin are concerned. It was among others the year in which hurricane Lenny moved through the Caribbean from west to east. Both Lenny and hurricane José affected parts of the northeastern Caribbean and especially the island of St. Maarten suffered a lot from these two systems.
Things were a little quieter in 2000 but that season still had an above average activity. Only one major hurricane, Keith, made landfall.
The years 2001, 2002 and 2003 also were quite active but no tropical cyclone damage was experienced on the islands of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba. Cuba however suffered a lot in September 2002 because of hurricanes Isidore and Lili. Despite the active 2003 season, the Caribbean Area was spared of any tropical cyclone until the official end of the season. In early December however, tropical storm Odette moved over Hispaniola and caused about ten fatalities in the Dominican Republic.

The Caribbean Area however was not spared in 2004 when especially hurricane Ivan caused havoc in places like Grenada, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and finally northwestern Florida. The ABC Islands were very lucky when Ivan went just a little north sparing us of a major head ache. Florida in the United States was visited by four major hurricanes between August 13 and September 26: Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.

Click here to see a table with the names that have been prepared for tropical cyclones reaching at least storm strength over the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Storms in the year 2009 will have the same names as the ones used in 2003, except for the names of Fabian, Isabel and Juan. Since these three systems did a lot of damage in respectively, Bermuda, the Eastern United States and Southeastern Canada, these names have been retired and replaced by respectively Fred (of all people), Ida and Joaquin.
In 2010, the Atlantic tropical cyclones will have the same names as the ones used in 2004 except for Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. These retired names will be replaced by respectively Colin, Fiona, Ike and Julia.
The record setting 2005 Atlantic hurricane season obviously had a record setting amount of retired hurricane names. The names Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma will be replaced in 2011 by respectively, Don, Katia, Rina, Sean and Whitney. Although Emily was also a strong category five hurricane, its devastation was not enough for this name to be retired.
No hurricane names were retired after the 2006 season since the major hurricanes during that surprisingly quiet season stayed well away from land or didn't cause major damage and only a few or no casualties at all. These same names will therefore return during the 2012 season.
Three names however were retired from the 2007 tropical cyclones list and won't return in 2013. The names of Dean, Felix and Noel will then be replaced by respectively Dorian, Fernand and Nestor.
After the rather busy 2008 season, another three hurricane names were retired. The names of hurricanes Gustav, Ike and Paloma will be replaced in 2014 by respectively, Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette.
The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was rather quiet and not a single name was retired after that year. All names from that year will therefore return in 2015.
To see a complete list of names prepared for tropical cyclones around the Earth, use this link or this one.

The best source of information about tropical cyclones in our area is the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami, Florida. The section of this center which issues, if necessary, any tropical cyclone advisory is the National Hurricane Center. Advisories on tropical cyclones over the northeastern Pacific can also be found on that page. Besides tropical cyclone advisories, you can also view among others the Tropical Weather Outlook from this site. It describes weather systems which have the potential to develop into tropical cyclones and will be updated four times a day (every six hours) between June 1 and November 30. Most of these systems are active tropical waves or other active areas of disturbed weather.
There are other sites like CNN's Hurricane Page which can also give you a lot of information about tropical storms and/or hurricanes. This site gives you even more interesting links with useful information about tropical cyclones.
Whenever a tropical cyclone develops somewhere in the Atlantic Basin, I'll give you a direct link to the latest advisory on that system as I already did with tropical cyclones between 1997 and 2007.
I'll do the same for tropical cyclones elsewhere on Earth. You can find those farther down this page.
For the latest satellite pictures, don't hesitate to check my Weather Satellite page where you can get links to the latest available GOES-East satellite pictures on the Internet. Those pictures show the various weather systems affecting the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Active Atlantic tropical cyclones:
There are currently two active tropical cyclones over the Atlantic Basin.
An active area of low pressure last Wednesday continued to become better organized over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, near the Cape Verde Islands. It was classified later in the morning as tropical depression Seven. It was upgraded during the afternoon to a tropical storm and was then named Earl. It became a hurricane on Sunday morning and moved very close to the northeastern Caribbean islands on Monday. At the same time, it continued to strengthen to a major category four system. It was moving Thursday evening toward the north-northeast and is forecast to turn gradually toward the northeast over the western Atlantic. A gradual weakening trend is expected during the next few days as this system moves very close to the east coast of the United States and Canada over the cooler waters of the northwestern Atlantic. Please read more detailed information about this system in the latest available public advisory and forecast/advisory. This map shows the reader the latest official position and forecast track of Earl.

Another vigorous disturbance over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, about half way between Western Africa and the Caribbean Area on Tuesday became better organized and was classified later in the day as tropical storm Fiona. It moved close to the northeastern Caribbean Area on Wednesday in a northwesterly direction and will turn gradually toward the north in the next couple of days while it weakens at the same time. Please find more information about this system in the latest available public advisory and forecast/advisory. This map displays the latest official position and forecast track of Fiona.

Tropical storm Gaston on Thursday weakened back to a tropical depression and even further to a remnant area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. It may regenerate during the next few days, as it continues to move toward the west and toward the eastern Caribbean Area. Please look for more information about this system in the (for now) final public advisory and forecast/advisory. Watch this map to see the final official position and forecast track of Gaston.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Basin, tropical cyclone development is not expected through Saturday.

Please read the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for information about suspect weather systems over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. In case a strong disturbance with the potential to become a tropical cyclone develops, a special Tropical Weather Outlook may be issued at times. You can also take a look at this graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook which is updated four times a day during the hurricane season.

Click here for a brief review of the past month over the Atlantic Basin written by the hurricane specialists of the National Hurricane Center.

If you want to read more about current weather phenomena in the tropics not necessarily with the potential to become tropical cyclones, please find this information in the latest Tropical Weather Discussion, issued year round four times a day by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center.
In case you still need more detailed information about especially Atlantic tropical cyclones, feel free to visit this interesting site of Crown Weather Services.

For information about active non-Atlantic tropical cyclones, look farther down this page.

Phil Klotzbach has replaced William Gray as the main author of the now famous hurricane season predictions issued by the Colorado State University. For the non-meteorologist, parts of Klotzbach's reviews and predictions might be a little too technical. I still recommend you to check his Atlantic hurricane season predictions or verifications.
The verification of these 2009 hurricane season forecasts was issued on November 19. The first outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was issued on December 9. The first update on this forecast followed on April 7 and the second one on June 2. Another update followed on August 4. All these documents are now being issued as PDF files, so you will need to have Adobe's Acrobat Reader on your computer to be able to read these predictions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States has also issued its 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast and you can read it through this link.

In several other parts of the Earth, tropical cyclone development will occur during this time of the year. Especially over the tropical northwestern and northeastern Pacific Ocean.

Please go down a couple of paragraphs to read more about tropical depression 10W over the northwestern Philippine Sea.

There are a few sites which give detailed information about tropical cyclones occurring in those areas. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is located in Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. It issues all advisories concerning typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean, tropical cyclones over the Southern Pacific and also tropical cyclones over both the northern and southern Indian Ocean.
The United States Navy operates the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and just like the civil National Hurricane Center in Miami, it names a tropical cyclone when the maximum sustained winds reach at least 35 knots over a one-minute average. The official agency responsible however for naming tropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific is the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Japanese hurricane specialists only name a tropical cyclone when the strongest winds reach at least 35 knots over a ten-minute average. That explains why the Joint Typhoon Warning Center classifies a certain system as a tropical storm without naming it yet since its strongest sustained winds are usually below 35 knots (yet) over a ten-minute average.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is responsible for issuing bulletins on tropical cyclones over the waters around tropical Australia and the Southeastern Indian Ocean, east of 90 degrees east of longitude. Take a look at their Warnings Page. The remainder of the Southern Indian Ocean (west of 90°W) is monitored by the Réunion branch of Météo France Also check this site of the University of Hawaii for more information about current or recent tropical cyclones in both the northern and the southern Pacific Ocean and the northern and Southern Indian Ocean. For the huge area between the Eastern Coral Sea and the Tahiti region, the Fiji Meteorological Service is responsible for issuing advisories in case tropical cyclones develop there. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Japan Meteorological Agency in Tokyo, the Indian Meteorological Department, the branch of Météo France in Réunion and the Fiji Meteorological Service in Nadi are all so-called Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) and these keep on monitoring the tropical waters throughout the year.

In September, the meteorological autumn starts but the sea surface waters in the tropics reach their annual high in almost all sections of the Earth, north of the Equator. The upper-level winds in general will continue to be quite light and that will allow an easier development of tropical cyclones over the tropical northeastern Pacific Ocean during this and the next month. The Tropical Weather Outlook for this section of the Pacific Ocean will be issued four times a day throughout the end of the season on November 30. This message, like its Atlantic Basin counterpart, during the hurricane season makes mention of suspect tropical weather systems which have the potential to become tropical cyclones and will be updated four times a day. There is also a graphical version of this message which will also be updated four times a day.
The sea surface temperatures over the central tropical Pacific Ocean in general are as always a little less warm than farther east and west and conditions for tropical cyclone development in this section of our planet are slightly less favorable. Over most sections of the tropical northwestern Pacific, the sea surface waters as usual will always be a little warmer than elsewhere over the northern hemisphere. That's why the chances of tropical cyclone development over this region will be highly favorable compared to elsewhere on our planet.
On the other side of the Equator however, the meteorological spring starts during this month over the waters in the Southern hemisphere. Sea surface water temperature in general will be near their yearly low and that will make it an unfavorable environment for tropical cyclone development. The meteorological conditions over there can be compared with tropical cyclone activity in March and early April, north of the equator.

Current active non-Atlantic storms.

There is currently one active tropical cyclone, elsewhere on Earth.

Compared to the Atlantic, normally more tropical storms and typhoons develop yearly (32 systems in 2004 compared to only fifteen in the Atlantic) over the northwestern tropical and subtropical Pacific. For that reason, the name given to the first system in a certain year is a continuation of the list of prepared names used in the previous year. In 2000, a new list of names was introduced for tropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific. This list contains names more common to the people of the Asian countries affected by these systems. The 2005 hurricane season however was quite different and more tropical cyclones actually developed over the Atlantic Basin than over the northwestern Pacific region.
See the list of names to get a look at all names prepared for tropical cyclones around the world.

Note: Occasionally the latest advisories cannot be downloaded from either the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii or the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami, Florida. Their servers could be unreachable for some reason. Try to use the link to this very interesting University of Wisconsin Tropical Cyclone site as an alternative to locate the latest advisories on all active systems over the Atlantic, the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

This satellite picture made by the GOES-10 satellite shows the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. To the right center section of this picture you should look for the active tropical eastern Pacific systems. 
Check the latest satellite picture made by the Japanese GMS weather satellite to see all the activity over the central and western Pacific Ocean, Eastern Asia, Australia and surroundings.

* The Beaufort scale runs from 0 to 12. Refer to the Saffir-Simpson Scale in table 2 for the various hurricane intensity categories.

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